AI keeps surprising the people closest to it
Surprise is information: it’s the signal that our model of reality needs an update.
People working at the frontier of AI are talking about how surprised they are. Surprise is information. It’s the signal that our model of reality, what we expect, needs an update.
Once a new capability arrives, it can seem as if it was always inevitable, and we may even explain why, accurately. But explanation isn’t the same as expectation. If you didn’t expect it, the surprise you’re explaining away is trying to tell you something.
I saw this first-hand when sharing results from my own AI research. People were clearly surprised, and within seconds they had a complete explanation for why the result made sense.
If reality is changing faster than we can internalise it, we’re acting in a world that no longer exists, and we have less agency. Becoming harder to surprise isn’t a virtue.
Watch on YouTube